October is a month that has a stock market reputation for volatility and in 2018 – at least in this sense – it did not disappoint. Hindsight watchers will point to the nervous tone of the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook document concerning higher interest rates and global trade angst as the straw that broke the camel’s back, but in reality a slow rotation in favour of more defensive equity market names had already been quietly occurring over the summer.
A Budget in October is unusual, but there are two main reasons why the Chancellor’s performance marginally pre-empted Halloween this year. The first is that we are now in the new cycle of Autumn Budgets and Spring Statements, the première of the latter having been made on 13 March.
For a number of months now, the world’s largest survey of fund managers has observed that, when asked for their greatest financial market fear, the most cited response has been a ‘trade war’. There is a significant slug of rationality for this.
In the global investment strategy calendar there is only one period of time that can compare with the turn of the year in terms of importance… and that is the back to school period.
Despite the usual weather downers such as the tennis at Wimbledon or the start of the school holidays, July was a warm month pretty much anywhere you looked in the northern hemisphere. Global stock markets were hot too, led by the out-of-favour emerging markets and Continental Europe. Funny how all throughout June and July the aggregate investment flow data was profoundly negative for both regions…
Major macro factors affecting the economy and financial markets over the next six to twelve months include trade policy, interest rates, earnings growth, Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, and geopolitical uncertainty.
I thought I would use Billy Connolly’s witticism about his homeland to highlight the essential debate in financial markets at the moment. During the last month, the UK’s most-quoted stock market index – helped by a rising oil price boosting energy sector shares – reached an all-time high.
Welcome to the month of May, which always seems to be a pivotal month for investors and this year feels no different. It certainly starts off with a difference. Here in the UK, May Day is a celebration of the summer to come and a perfect excuse to put on your Morris bells, worship a Green Man and crown a May Queen. Meanwhile, in much of the rest of the world it is International Workers Day where you may want to swap your Morris bells for a red flag.
Major macro factors affecting the economy and financial markets over the next six to twelve months include interest rates, earnings growth, inflation, monetary policy, and global economic growth.
So how was February for you? For many it would have been a bit of a shock with the global indices in aggregate posting their first monthly loss since the autumn of 2016, which is a long time ago. The real question however is whether this heralds a new downward trend, whether this is just a new volatility reality or whether we should view this as a buying opportunity?